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2009 plastic market analysis and forecast in 2010

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[Abstract]:
2009 ethylene chemical products market trend is relatively calm, not 08 years of ups and downs, unpredictable
2009 ethylene chemical products market trend is relatively calm, not 08 years of ups and downs, unpredictable, has been around the gradual thought process pragmatic walk through the wind and rain and a ray of sunshine, and ultimately out of the financial tsunami and the collapse of the shadow of the market. In short, the global economy is gradually recovering, the market demand side is also a modest start, the market in 2009 to a smooth transition played a key role.
According to traditional practice, New Year's Day, around the Spring Festival market conditions will be in a wait-and-see atmosphere of a strong downturn rest period, 1-2 months the market is more quiet, price stalemate, trading is not busy; into March, with businesses, downstream manufacturers Festival Return to the market to buy the increase, as well as crude oil, outer disk prices all the way with the strong high, the domestic market prices started, the price stable uplink.
Into May, with the seasonal demand for the depth of the off-season intentions, the market showed a significant decline in the market into a downturn in the bottleneck period, the transaction is more tired sluggish; into July, the market ushered in a long absence, , Outer disk, petrochemical prices opened higher traction, the market prices continue to climb until the August market, petrochemical prices hit a record high in the range of 1500-2000 yuan, reaching the heyday of turnover hot. In particular, the market demand and economic environment than expected, the confidence of the market to buy frustrated, the market into the rational callback stage; through 9,10 months, the market sentiment has been weak, Market consolidation and baptism of seasonal demand season, 11-12 month market recovery and warming gradually, the market price oscillation up, and launched a calm, steady market Quotes, less speculation and speculation, more of a rational, calm , Steady turnover opened. As of the end of December, look at the trend throughout the year, it is easy to see 09 plastic market is more plain, no ups and downs, bit by bit slowly climbing, the market price from the beginning of the 7000-8000 yuan shot up to the end of 11000-12000 yuan.
PP closely linked to the other part of the market good. PP market in July before the crude oil and weak demand pressure, the prices continued to decline, business mentality instability, shipments positive, the market has increased supply, sales pressure also increased, coupled with the intention of receiving goods downstream is not strong, Stalemate is difficult to break the two sides, short still dominant. October, November higher crude oil to the market to establish a certain degree of confidence, the petrochemical advantage of any time to play again. Sinopec in central China, Sinopec in South China, CNPC and other enterprises in South China, driven by a large range of petrochemical prices increase. Busy price hikes, temporarily do not rise also began to "blow", Petrochemical closely with the crude oil gains push the market's intentions can be described as well-being. But for now, its role is difficult to get rid of the same fate and crude oil, the market reaction is not obvious.
Polyethylene into the market since August, the market suddenly rose sharply, it can be said now about polyethylene market is the main factor in the ups and downs of oil prices, US crude oil futures prices in September from July 30 for the third consecutive day jumped to a maximum of 72.19 Dollar, which can be said that the PE market rose this round of direct drivers. September PE market continued the decline trend of the end of August, and intensified. Early, crude oil fell below 70 US dollars / barrel, LLDPE futures market crash, ahead of delivery of goods into the market, how many negative factors impact the market, the market sharply diving.
May PE market by the impact of weak downstream demand, trading atmosphere light, the market offer most of the time Yindie soft, business mentality downturn, to maintain Kuaijinkuaichu wet storage operations. November, the snow closed road, PVC manufacturers calcium carbide arrival tension, started to reduce the PVC inventory reduction, while PVC outbound sources of supply difficulties, market sources nervous reluctant sellers, electricity prices, chlor-alkali production costs, crude oil, PVC futures High-run, inflation is expected to strengthen. April domestic ABS market showed the characteristics of the first rose after the fall. June domestic ABS market conditions were removed, with a simple summary of ten words to rise - wait - Yindie - weak consolidation. September domestic ABS market, "head and tail down, the middle stable" features. Continuation of market trends in August, early September domestic ABS market inertia decline, fatigue, hard to change. Turnover continued poor, low-cost supply of slow digestion, brokers selling pressure is strong. December by the rebound in crude oil rebounded and the overall plastic city atmosphere to better influence, the domestic ABS market slightly higher trading atmosphere has improved from the previous month. But the downstream plant demand is stable, small and medium-sized downstream users as a whole is not high, very cautious purchase.
In April, raw materials and PS spread further closer, cost pressures, PS "can not lag behind." As the end of August a huge market pressure, petrochemical manufacturers in early September generally substantially lower offer, is the quotation of the quotation. Into October, was originally air-conditioned production of the off-season, but the well-known domestic air-conditioning manufacturers have recently ushered in a long absence in the busy. Production slightly increased slightly. Originally, these orders should come from June onwards, but by the international financial crisis, delayed this year, two or three months. Although the situation has improved in October, but the clouds do not do the bulk of the overseas market enterprises need to be careful. In Nov. 4 or 5 or so with a strong trend of rising styrene raw materials, market businesses to seize the opportunity, the market price began to quickly with the rise.
Market Forecast of Ethylene Chemical Products in
In the global economic recovery and demand is expected to increase the environment, the outlook for the market outlook in 2010, will remain calm and stable direction, is expected to continue in 2009 to promote the development of stable thinking, market development more rational and Mature, more inclined to regulate the market operation and prudent, while the country introduced a series of favorable measures and the rapid development of the global economy, the market trend in 2010 played a crucial role.
The favorable factors for the market trend in 2010 are as follows:
1, the state introduced a number of support measures aimed at improving the economic environment, stabilize the market, to a certain extent, eased the market decline, in particular, can effectively prevent market malignancy
2, most of the domestic petrochemical plant to actively proceed with the transformation, through scientific means of progress, optimize the product structure, production of marketable products, help balance the contradiction of market supply.
3, experience 08,09 years of market adjustment, the market price of its run more rational, in line with market rules, to avoid the disorderly competition and opportunistic behavior, the market outlook in accordance with the progressive model to promote
4, 2010, the first quarter of 2010, more than petrochemical plant maintenance, such as the end of Maoming in January to January maintenance 1 month; CSPC in early March overhaul 2 months; Yamba 4 months early maintenance 2 months, petrochemical maintenance program, To a certain extent, resources can be sufficient pressure, on the other hand there is still a certain price stability, push the price to promote the role, in particular, to reverse the market has a certain degree of ease.
5, 2010, the state's loose monetary policy, to ensure adequate liquidity, the market for the normal operation of the purchase area to provide a solid financial guarantee.
6, the rapid development of the global economy, but also to accelerate the development of various industries, consumer demand levels have also been able to fully enhance the raw material prices, and promote cost increases, virtually the downstream product uplift also play a positive supporting role.
7, the rapid development of global economy, and promote the rapid development of domestic export business, to a certain extent, ease the flow of products to the pressure.
Although the market and economic recovery in 2010, out of the trough, and in the second half to accelerate development, but also to see the adverse factors still restricting the pace of market development.
Ethylene chemical products in 2009 the market trend of the negative factors are as follows:
1, the state introduced the revitalization of the petrochemical industry measures, but there is a certain improvement, but there is not much real breakthroughs and enhance the market demand is not good situation can not break overnight, still need some time to adjust to repair.
2, affected by the financial tsunami, 08,09 years, many shut down the downstream manufacturers, has been difficult to turn over the opportunity, is bound to affect market demand.
3, the second half of 2009 and 2010, more sets of new ethylene and ethylene expansion focused on the start, when the abundant supply of resources, and market demand growth is not complete, is bound to suppress the formation of market prices, market recovery has a certain resistance, and potential Of the overcapacity crisis.
4, the aftermath of the financial tsunami is still a lot of businesses and downstream manufacturers to buy mentality increasingly careful and cautious, is bound to buy into the market confidence to a certain extent.
5, 2010 January, the state of a small number of ASEAN countries, ethylene chemical products (such as Singapore linear, low pressure, polypropylene copolymer) import tariffs to implement zero tariff, when the ASEAN countries imported goods into the domestic market, the domestic market price Of the impact.
6, in recent years, ethylene chemical products market demand is shrinking signs of an abundance of resources for 2010 is undoubtedly a fatal blow.
7, the rapid development of the global economy, but also led to inflation and monetary tightening concerns
All in all, the market outlook in 2010 is full of historic opportunities and challenges, the global economy is rapidly recovering, out of the woods, and to accelerate the pace of development, to the 2010 market to provide more competitive advantage, market demand and fundamental improvement of the economic environment, So that the market in 2010 to add brilliant colors, a higher level. 2010, the market bad and coexist, game and resolve turns to change, making the market changes more frequent and unpredictable, consider the economy and the market is working towards a healthy and stable track development, market volatility is still the main tone, the market ups and downs The possibility is small, do not rule out hot topics between speculation and frequent conversion of hot spots such as oscillation pattern, the overall oscillation is still upward throughout the market throughout the year.